(From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. It's happened before. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. 108,000 people. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. It gets a lot more interesting. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. The divisions were everywhere. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. 11. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. (subject to censorship). Twitter Twitter Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. i.e. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Want to dive deeper? The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. 8. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.).